ZANU-PF: One mistake away from disaster. The end of an Era

I last said it was the end of MDC-T but all is not so straight forward in politics...

Well several cuases for concern in the MDC-t camp were outlined but that's not the end of it. ZANU-PF is not all powerful and guaranteed for a win in the general elections. ZANU-PF has its problems too

There have been a number of developments within ZANU-PF, which the MDC should use to increase its leverage and electoral punch. Most important is President Mugabe’s age and health which remain something of a liability for the party. It will be interesting to see how much campaigning Mugabe will be capable of in the run up to the elections. The younger Tsvangirai should use this opportunity to outdo Mugabe on the campaign trail.

Until recently, it was difficult to deny that ZANU-PF had a disproportionate advantage over the nation’s most precious resource; talented politicians. These chilly political entrepreneurs, who tossed aside democracy at the expense of power, have masterminded ZANU-PF’s stranglehold on Zimbabwean politics since 1980. However, some of these leaders have either recently died (Mujuru; Mudenge) or are now old and frail (Shamhuyarira; Murerwa, amongst others) or have deserted the party (Makoni; Dabengwa). Those who have remained have either been thoroughly discredited (Mahoso; Moyo), or fatigued and have withdrawn to the backstage of politics. More sore is the in house mess that is well documented in some local newspapers the whole Mutasa debacle; cattle theft. Probably the bigwigs have pressed the panic button amid fears of losing the polls.

What are the Options for the MDC?

There are three possible options for the MDC. The first is to join a ‘coalition of the opposition’ and formulate an effective ‘grand’ campaign strategy that would articulate the parties’ policies using nationalist rhetoric. The advantage of creating an opposition with ZAPU-PF and the smaller MDC formation is that the ‘coalition of opposition forces’ have a chance at retaining votes from the Matabeleland and the Midlands. However, this might be problematic given enmity that exists between Tsvangirai and Ncube.

The second option is to scale back, and to be realistic in terms of what the party wants to win. The MDC must decide if it wants the presidency or a majority in parliament, or both. The reality is that winning the presidency now seems a very difficult task, considering Tsvangirai’s tainted leadership. Indeed, based on recent surveys, his chances are much slimmer than in the last two elections. This leaves the MDC with one option; recapturing the majority in parliament, this time with a much wider gap that will give the party a shot at pushing for reformist legislation. It seems the party will have to wait for Tsvangirai’s svengali, Tendai Biti, probably a more capable leader, to take over if they want to win Presidency too.

The third option is simply to ignore the polls. This ‘strategic denial’ appears to be the course that the MDC has opted for so far. Such a calculus, it appears, is based on the premise that these polls are in most cases wrong.

In as much as one would have a clearer view of how the polls will pan out this time it seems Zimbabwe has a proper competition on it's hands. "Clash of the Titans" it would seem. What will be the tiping point is how the state Aparatus (security, media, armed forces, justice department etc) will be used to tip the balance or to promote free and fair elections.

New Constitution : So Near Yet So Far!!! "Are we there Yet?????"

His excellency the president, is likely to be the one to set the date for the general elections. This comes after the Supreme come court passed a ruling in favor of the president in the matter as to when the elections could be held in that the existing parliament would have to be dissolved on 29 June.

President Judge George Chiweshe passed the rulling saying that the existing parliament could not last beyond the 29th of June this year and he cited several reasons...

In his judgment delivered last week in favour of Mugabe, reasons were given yesterday, Justice Chiweshe said it was common cause that the President was sworn into office on June 29, 2009. Among them was the view that under the existing constitution, the life of the parliament will have come to an end.

“On that date,Parliament shall stand dissolved . . . It is, however, permissible to extend the life of Parliament beyond that date on the grounds provided under Section 63 (5) and (6) of the Constitution,” Chiweshe said.

So the President has the ultimate power on the deciding of the poll date. But there are other factors of influence. for instance when is the NEW CONSTITUTION be passed and adopted as the law in the country?

While the top brasses of the country debate and argue about the poll date and so on they are not explaining the new constitution situation as it still hold zimbabweans at ransom: - as tight as it has ever been.

Minister Chinamasa was on radio in the previous week explaining this among other issues of  particularly his visit to England with several other politicians.

Chinamasa explained that the new constitution has to first wait a probationary period of 30 days before it can be debated in parliament  and that it will the be passed as a bill and the adopted. 

The likely time frame to look at in my opinion is at least 3 months. In the meantime we have all this ruckus one poll dates.

Its confusing to the random pedestrian that after voting for a new constitution and still to be held at ransom by the old one. More information has to be given to the Zimbabweans...

Here they are happy about their new constitution but its still not in their reach. 

Classic So Near Yet So FAR!!!

What is wanted now is information...   and a clear road map to were the country is headed...

Why cant they Agree on a single Election date?????

Well this is doesn't surprise me one bit. we now have two different dates for the General Elections. 

We have his Excellency the president saying they will be held in June this year and Morgan Tsvangirai sayys the ideal date would be 16 September.

Why can't they agree on a single date this one ups man-ship contest has gone too far in my book. Of the two dates which is the more reasonable or sensible or realistic date for the polls. Frankly I do not care; sue me! 

Here is my problem with it all.

I don't want to take sides with either party on the date selection all that must understood is are the people of Zimbabwe ready and can ZEC carry out the election.

FUNDING of the elections has been a huge deal. the state does not have enough money to fund the process. The UNDP has been handed with a request to fund the nation's polls and they returned a letter with various conditions they want for the organisation to fund Zimbabwe. I agree with the conditions from the state that we will not conform to UNDP's request on how Zimbabwe should run the election process l"et us be us" I say. In this regard a later date date would help in aloting more time to acquire resources to run the polls.

The timing on both dates affects the Final exams period for some of Zimbabwe's Schooling community. if they can't respect the education process of the country's future leaders what then are they doing, destroying a country that is trying to rise from the muck they put it in.. (by them I mean All the Politicians involved). There is no running away from this issue. if polls are to be held this year they will disturb the School calender.

On the plus side there is more time for voter education. the Referendum brought out clearly how seriously Zimbabweans need more voter education. the "ignorance" on the subject among most Zimbabweans is pitiful.

Also candidates would have more time to carry out their campaigns in their respective constituencies. And be know by the people they seek to serve.

As long as there is no set date for the polls Zimbabwe has no future to look forward to. Until then its driving blind.

IM sure I speak for many Zimbabweans when I say that may a date please be set  sooner rather than later.

  

Violent General Elections Coming Up?

Final Lap: Contestants take your places

So its the final lap to the elections...
Violence is what everybody fears..
should we expect it???

PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM NOT ASKING PEOPLE TO PARTAKE IN VIOLENT ACTIONS BEFORE AFTER OR DURING THE GENERAL ELECTION !!!!!!!!!!!!

In all the past elections since the emergence of a significantly strong opposition party (MDC) there has been politically influenced violence. In this view most people seem to anticipate "bloody" polls. I do too.
Why you may ask... well the nation's uniformed forces is led by people that actively participated in the liberation struggle and feel this nation is theirs. So too are those in the once undoubted "Ruling Party". As such they are more likely to consider violent action as means for maintaining the offices they hold.

Zimbabwe is a young country in comparison to some of the well established examples of "democracy" in Europe or America that  gone through large numbers of presidents and or heads of state; where Zimbabwe has only gone through 1 in its 32 year history. This has greatly impacted the people of Zimbabwe such that if the out come of the General elections is not a favored one to some groups there will be a violent backlash in response to the result.

During the weekend there was a graduation ceremony for several hundred police cadets.....
fresh from training the young cops are quick to strike with their  batons. So too are those from the military. My fear is if their commanders are unclear as to that their agenda is to protect the people and not to strike fear and pain to them the election result will not be consider free or fair....

I URGE YOU TO CEASE AND DESIST FROM ANY VIOLENT ACT IN THE MONTHS TO FOLLOW
LETS ALL VOTE IN PEACE AND HARMONY