I read this article and found it
to be so insightful that I had to post it in it’s entirety. More so the points
presented are quite relevant and to a certain extent true….
Could this spell the end of the
MDC?
BY SIMUKAI TINHU
Fourteen years ago, Zimbabwe’s
main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) launched itself
onto Zimbabwe’s political scene with great local and international fanfare. The
MDC was seen as having given rise to a new understanding of Zimbabwean
politics, which sought to explain the vulnerability of President Mugabe’s
Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU – PF). Not since
independence from British rule in 1980, had an opposition party played such a
significant role in the Southern African nation’s politics.
Indeed, for the first time ever,
ZANU-PF went on to lose a majority in parliament, and its octogenarian leader
was relegated to second place after being beaten by MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai in
the first round of the 2008 presidential elections. Many Zimbabweans predicted
that the MDC juggernaut would sweep to victory in the elections, which have
been scheduled to take place at the end of the coalition government (formed
after the 2008 elections).
Based on the evidence of voter
surveys (notably, Afrobarometer and Freedom House) and some
not-so-well-attended MDC political rallies (in comparison to 2002 and 2008
election campaigns), a feeling has developed that the MDC may have indulged in
undue optimism. Indeed, the words ‘MDC’ and ‘lose’ are being flung around
liberally these days by both local and international analysts.
Why are Zimbabwean voters
deserting the MDC?
One contention is that, whilst in
government, MDC politicians have been caught up in corruption scandals, which has
made some voters doubt the party’s ability to run the country differently from
ZANU-PF. Another contention is that ZANU-PF’s populist policies, such as the
campaign for the indigenisation of foreign owned companies, have won sympathy
from many Zimbabweans, who being largely unemployed, have aspirations towards
entrepreneurialism. The MDC’s opposition to this policy has also been
propagandised by ZANU-PF as evidence that Tsvangirai’s party is against black
empowerment.
In addition, the recently
improved performance of the Zimbabwean economy, in comparison to the period
prior to the formation of the coalition government in 2008, has been a double
edged sword for the MDC. Tsvangirai’s party put forth the argument that with
the Finance and Industry ministries in its hands, the party has successfully
transformed the economy from an inflationary nightmare to one that has
consistently recorded growth (following years of ZANU-PF’s mismanagement), and
the land grab policy that destroyed the agriculture sector (formerly the
backbone of the economy). However, restoring the economic fortunes of the
country has meant the end of the worst food shortages and tackling of
hyperinflation. This means that the previously successful message on the need
to fix the economy holds less weight.
Lastly, it appears the opposition
has been unable to guard against an attack on the person of their leader,
Morgan Tsvangirai. ZANU-PF has successfully turned nasty rumours into political
currency, damaging Tsvangirai’s political fortunes. For example, the antics of
the MDC leader in bed and the caricature of him as indecisive have seen some of
his ardent supporters doubting his sincerity and capacity to lead the country.
Even Core Voters deserting MDC
These explanations suggest
reasons why Zimbabweans in general are deserting the MDC, but not its core
supporters. The majority of the party’s votes have traditionally come from
urban areas and the Matabeleland and Midlands regions. Why is it that the
attitudes of voters from these areas have changed recently?
Unnoticed, within the last five
years, there has been a development that has had a significant impact on
Zimbabwe’s political landscape; the mushrooming of urban based Pentecostal
churches that target young urbanites doing well economically, or those poor who
aspire to do so. These groups have traditionally been the core of the MDC
support. Whereas ten years ago, the MDC had the capacity to attract sixty
thousand young urban dwellers to a political rally, today it is the Pentecostal
church leaders who get the crowds.
Led by the likes of the
charismatic Emmanuel Makandiwa and Hubert Angel, these churches have built a
strong following of mostly young urbanites, would be MDC voters. One
characteristic of the groups is apathy towards politics, particularly as a
product of religious teachings, and also a disturbing tendency towards a sort
of puritanism that politics cannot provide. These young born-again believers
have a moral repulsion towards politicians, and it is not surprising that a promiscuous
presidential aspirant will have little chance in winning their vote.
ZANU-PF has also seized on a
heightened anti-western mood amongst the young to intensify its portrayal of
Tsvangirai as a front for neo-colonialists. Buoyed by the ‘Africa Rising’
meta-narrative, this message appears to be resonating with mostly young and educated
Africans, and Zimbabweans are no exception. Judging from the two most recent
elections in Africa; Kenya and Zambia, where Uhuru Kenyatta and Michael Sata
ran campaigns based on sustained anti-western rhetoric, the MDC might need to
devise a strategy to guard itself against being portrayed as its stooges.
The MDC’s alienation of voters
from the Mateleland and the Midlands regions appear to have been shaped by a
number of factors. First, people from Matebeleland and the Midlands state that
they are dissatisfied with the MDC’s failure to secure decentralisation of the
state, both politically and constitutionally. Second, voters from these
regions, who are predominantly Ndebele speaking, have accused Tsvangirai of not
doing enough to ensure that the issue of Gukurahundi, where 2000 civilians were
allegedly killed by the state, is resolved or at least kept in the limelight.
Third, some of Tsvangirai’s personal behaviour, such as impregnating a 23 year
old girl from Matebeleland, denying responsibility and later on admitting that
he was the father, seems to have helped reverse inroads that the party had made
in this constituency in the last 10 years.
Finally, the Matebeleland and
Midlands regions have become targets of competition by the resurrected Zimbabwe
African People’s Union (ZAPU-PF), a party that was once led by Joshua Nkomo
before he was forced into a political union with ZANU-PF, and the smaller MDC
formation led by Welshman Ncube, crowding the MDC in the process.
### END OF PART 1
