ZANU-PF: One mistake away from disaster. The end of an Era

I last said it was the end of MDC-T but all is not so straight forward in politics...

Well several cuases for concern in the MDC-t camp were outlined but that's not the end of it. ZANU-PF is not all powerful and guaranteed for a win in the general elections. ZANU-PF has its problems too

There have been a number of developments within ZANU-PF, which the MDC should use to increase its leverage and electoral punch. Most important is President Mugabe’s age and health which remain something of a liability for the party. It will be interesting to see how much campaigning Mugabe will be capable of in the run up to the elections. The younger Tsvangirai should use this opportunity to outdo Mugabe on the campaign trail.

Until recently, it was difficult to deny that ZANU-PF had a disproportionate advantage over the nation’s most precious resource; talented politicians. These chilly political entrepreneurs, who tossed aside democracy at the expense of power, have masterminded ZANU-PF’s stranglehold on Zimbabwean politics since 1980. However, some of these leaders have either recently died (Mujuru; Mudenge) or are now old and frail (Shamhuyarira; Murerwa, amongst others) or have deserted the party (Makoni; Dabengwa). Those who have remained have either been thoroughly discredited (Mahoso; Moyo), or fatigued and have withdrawn to the backstage of politics. More sore is the in house mess that is well documented in some local newspapers the whole Mutasa debacle; cattle theft. Probably the bigwigs have pressed the panic button amid fears of losing the polls.

What are the Options for the MDC?

There are three possible options for the MDC. The first is to join a ‘coalition of the opposition’ and formulate an effective ‘grand’ campaign strategy that would articulate the parties’ policies using nationalist rhetoric. The advantage of creating an opposition with ZAPU-PF and the smaller MDC formation is that the ‘coalition of opposition forces’ have a chance at retaining votes from the Matabeleland and the Midlands. However, this might be problematic given enmity that exists between Tsvangirai and Ncube.

The second option is to scale back, and to be realistic in terms of what the party wants to win. The MDC must decide if it wants the presidency or a majority in parliament, or both. The reality is that winning the presidency now seems a very difficult task, considering Tsvangirai’s tainted leadership. Indeed, based on recent surveys, his chances are much slimmer than in the last two elections. This leaves the MDC with one option; recapturing the majority in parliament, this time with a much wider gap that will give the party a shot at pushing for reformist legislation. It seems the party will have to wait for Tsvangirai’s svengali, Tendai Biti, probably a more capable leader, to take over if they want to win Presidency too.

The third option is simply to ignore the polls. This ‘strategic denial’ appears to be the course that the MDC has opted for so far. Such a calculus, it appears, is based on the premise that these polls are in most cases wrong.

In as much as one would have a clearer view of how the polls will pan out this time it seems Zimbabwe has a proper competition on it's hands. "Clash of the Titans" it would seem. What will be the tiping point is how the state Aparatus (security, media, armed forces, justice department etc) will be used to tip the balance or to promote free and fair elections.