ZANU-PF: One mistake away from disaster. The end of an Era

I last said it was the end of MDC-T but all is not so straight forward in politics...

Well several cuases for concern in the MDC-t camp were outlined but that's not the end of it. ZANU-PF is not all powerful and guaranteed for a win in the general elections. ZANU-PF has its problems too

There have been a number of developments within ZANU-PF, which the MDC should use to increase its leverage and electoral punch. Most important is President Mugabe’s age and health which remain something of a liability for the party. It will be interesting to see how much campaigning Mugabe will be capable of in the run up to the elections. The younger Tsvangirai should use this opportunity to outdo Mugabe on the campaign trail.

Until recently, it was difficult to deny that ZANU-PF had a disproportionate advantage over the nation’s most precious resource; talented politicians. These chilly political entrepreneurs, who tossed aside democracy at the expense of power, have masterminded ZANU-PF’s stranglehold on Zimbabwean politics since 1980. However, some of these leaders have either recently died (Mujuru; Mudenge) or are now old and frail (Shamhuyarira; Murerwa, amongst others) or have deserted the party (Makoni; Dabengwa). Those who have remained have either been thoroughly discredited (Mahoso; Moyo), or fatigued and have withdrawn to the backstage of politics. More sore is the in house mess that is well documented in some local newspapers the whole Mutasa debacle; cattle theft. Probably the bigwigs have pressed the panic button amid fears of losing the polls.

What are the Options for the MDC?

There are three possible options for the MDC. The first is to join a ‘coalition of the opposition’ and formulate an effective ‘grand’ campaign strategy that would articulate the parties’ policies using nationalist rhetoric. The advantage of creating an opposition with ZAPU-PF and the smaller MDC formation is that the ‘coalition of opposition forces’ have a chance at retaining votes from the Matabeleland and the Midlands. However, this might be problematic given enmity that exists between Tsvangirai and Ncube.

The second option is to scale back, and to be realistic in terms of what the party wants to win. The MDC must decide if it wants the presidency or a majority in parliament, or both. The reality is that winning the presidency now seems a very difficult task, considering Tsvangirai’s tainted leadership. Indeed, based on recent surveys, his chances are much slimmer than in the last two elections. This leaves the MDC with one option; recapturing the majority in parliament, this time with a much wider gap that will give the party a shot at pushing for reformist legislation. It seems the party will have to wait for Tsvangirai’s svengali, Tendai Biti, probably a more capable leader, to take over if they want to win Presidency too.

The third option is simply to ignore the polls. This ‘strategic denial’ appears to be the course that the MDC has opted for so far. Such a calculus, it appears, is based on the premise that these polls are in most cases wrong.

In as much as one would have a clearer view of how the polls will pan out this time it seems Zimbabwe has a proper competition on it's hands. "Clash of the Titans" it would seem. What will be the tiping point is how the state Aparatus (security, media, armed forces, justice department etc) will be used to tip the balance or to promote free and fair elections.

THE DAWN OF THE END OF MDC-T

I read this article and found it to be so insightful that I had to post it in it’s entirety. More so the points presented are quite relevant and to a certain extent true….

Could this spell the end of the MDC?

Zimbabwe: Why Has Support For The MDC Plummeted So Much?

BY SIMUKAI TINHU

Fourteen years ago, Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) launched itself onto Zimbabwe’s political scene with great local and international fanfare. The MDC was seen as having given rise to a new understanding of Zimbabwean politics, which sought to explain the vulnerability of President Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU – PF). Not since independence from British rule in 1980, had an opposition party played such a significant role in the Southern African nation’s politics.

Indeed, for the first time ever, ZANU-PF went on to lose a majority in parliament, and its octogenarian leader was relegated to second place after being beaten by MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai in the first round of the 2008 presidential elections. Many Zimbabweans predicted that the MDC juggernaut would sweep to victory in the elections, which have been scheduled to take place at the end of the coalition government (formed after the 2008 elections).

Based on the evidence of voter surveys (notably, Afrobarometer and Freedom House) and some not-so-well-attended MDC political rallies (in comparison to 2002 and 2008 election campaigns), a feeling has developed that the MDC may have indulged in undue optimism. Indeed, the words ‘MDC’ and ‘lose’ are being flung around liberally these days by both local and international analysts.

Why are Zimbabwean voters deserting the MDC?

One contention is that, whilst in government, MDC politicians have been caught up in corruption scandals, which has made some voters doubt the party’s ability to run the country differently from ZANU-PF. Another contention is that ZANU-PF’s populist policies, such as the campaign for the indigenisation of foreign owned companies, have won sympathy from many Zimbabweans, who being largely unemployed, have aspirations towards entrepreneurialism. The MDC’s opposition to this policy has also been propagandised by ZANU-PF as evidence that Tsvangirai’s party is against black empowerment.

In addition, the recently improved performance of the Zimbabwean economy, in comparison to the period prior to the formation of the coalition government in 2008, has been a double edged sword for the MDC. Tsvangirai’s party put forth the argument that with the Finance and Industry ministries in its hands, the party has successfully transformed the economy from an inflationary nightmare to one that has consistently recorded growth (following years of ZANU-PF’s mismanagement), and the land grab policy that destroyed the agriculture sector (formerly the backbone of the economy). However, restoring the economic fortunes of the country has meant the end of the worst food shortages and tackling of hyperinflation. This means that the previously successful message on the need to fix the economy holds less weight.

Lastly, it appears the opposition has been unable to guard against an attack on the person of their leader, Morgan Tsvangirai. ZANU-PF has successfully turned nasty rumours into political currency, damaging Tsvangirai’s political fortunes. For example, the antics of the MDC leader in bed and the caricature of him as indecisive have seen some of his ardent supporters doubting his sincerity and capacity to lead the country.

Even Core Voters deserting MDC

These explanations suggest reasons why Zimbabweans in general are deserting the MDC, but not its core supporters. The majority of the party’s votes have traditionally come from urban areas and the Matabeleland and Midlands regions. Why is it that the attitudes of voters from these areas have changed recently?

Unnoticed, within the last five years, there has been a development that has had a significant impact on Zimbabwe’s political landscape; the mushrooming of urban based Pentecostal churches that target young urbanites doing well economically, or those poor who aspire to do so. These groups have traditionally been the core of the MDC support. Whereas ten years ago, the MDC had the capacity to attract sixty thousand young urban dwellers to a political rally, today it is the Pentecostal church leaders who get the crowds.

Led by the likes of the charismatic Emmanuel Makandiwa and Hubert Angel, these churches have built a strong following of mostly young urbanites, would be MDC voters. One characteristic of the groups is apathy towards politics, particularly as a product of religious teachings, and also a disturbing tendency towards a sort of puritanism that politics cannot provide. These young born-again believers have a moral repulsion towards politicians, and it is not surprising that a promiscuous presidential aspirant will have little chance in winning their vote.

ZANU-PF has also seized on a heightened anti-western mood amongst the young to intensify its portrayal of Tsvangirai as a front for neo-colonialists. Buoyed by the ‘Africa Rising’ meta-narrative, this message appears to be resonating with mostly young and educated Africans, and Zimbabweans are no exception. Judging from the two most recent elections in Africa; Kenya and Zambia, where Uhuru Kenyatta and Michael Sata ran campaigns based on sustained anti-western rhetoric, the MDC might need to devise a strategy to guard itself against being portrayed as its stooges.

The MDC’s alienation of voters from the Mateleland and the Midlands regions appear to have been shaped by a number of factors. First, people from Matebeleland and the Midlands state that they are dissatisfied with the MDC’s failure to secure decentralisation of the state, both politically and constitutionally. Second, voters from these regions, who are predominantly Ndebele speaking, have accused Tsvangirai of not doing enough to ensure that the issue of Gukurahundi, where 2000 civilians were allegedly killed by the state, is resolved or at least kept in the limelight. Third, some of Tsvangirai’s personal behaviour, such as impregnating a 23 year old girl from Matebeleland, denying responsibility and later on admitting that he was the father, seems to have helped reverse inroads that the party had made in this constituency in the last 10 years.

Finally, the Matebeleland and Midlands regions have become targets of competition by the resurrected Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU-PF), a party that was once led by Joshua Nkomo before he was forced into a political union with ZANU-PF, and the smaller MDC formation led by Welshman Ncube, crowding the MDC in the process.

### END OF PART 1

New Constitution : So Near Yet So Far!!! "Are we there Yet?????"

His excellency the president, is likely to be the one to set the date for the general elections. This comes after the Supreme come court passed a ruling in favor of the president in the matter as to when the elections could be held in that the existing parliament would have to be dissolved on 29 June.

President Judge George Chiweshe passed the rulling saying that the existing parliament could not last beyond the 29th of June this year and he cited several reasons...

In his judgment delivered last week in favour of Mugabe, reasons were given yesterday, Justice Chiweshe said it was common cause that the President was sworn into office on June 29, 2009. Among them was the view that under the existing constitution, the life of the parliament will have come to an end.

“On that date,Parliament shall stand dissolved . . . It is, however, permissible to extend the life of Parliament beyond that date on the grounds provided under Section 63 (5) and (6) of the Constitution,” Chiweshe said.

So the President has the ultimate power on the deciding of the poll date. But there are other factors of influence. for instance when is the NEW CONSTITUTION be passed and adopted as the law in the country?

While the top brasses of the country debate and argue about the poll date and so on they are not explaining the new constitution situation as it still hold zimbabweans at ransom: - as tight as it has ever been.

Minister Chinamasa was on radio in the previous week explaining this among other issues of  particularly his visit to England with several other politicians.

Chinamasa explained that the new constitution has to first wait a probationary period of 30 days before it can be debated in parliament  and that it will the be passed as a bill and the adopted. 

The likely time frame to look at in my opinion is at least 3 months. In the meantime we have all this ruckus one poll dates.

Its confusing to the random pedestrian that after voting for a new constitution and still to be held at ransom by the old one. More information has to be given to the Zimbabweans...

Here they are happy about their new constitution but its still not in their reach. 

Classic So Near Yet So FAR!!!

What is wanted now is information...   and a clear road map to were the country is headed...

Why cant they Agree on a single Election date?????

Well this is doesn't surprise me one bit. we now have two different dates for the General Elections. 

We have his Excellency the president saying they will be held in June this year and Morgan Tsvangirai sayys the ideal date would be 16 September.

Why can't they agree on a single date this one ups man-ship contest has gone too far in my book. Of the two dates which is the more reasonable or sensible or realistic date for the polls. Frankly I do not care; sue me! 

Here is my problem with it all.

I don't want to take sides with either party on the date selection all that must understood is are the people of Zimbabwe ready and can ZEC carry out the election.

FUNDING of the elections has been a huge deal. the state does not have enough money to fund the process. The UNDP has been handed with a request to fund the nation's polls and they returned a letter with various conditions they want for the organisation to fund Zimbabwe. I agree with the conditions from the state that we will not conform to UNDP's request on how Zimbabwe should run the election process l"et us be us" I say. In this regard a later date date would help in aloting more time to acquire resources to run the polls.

The timing on both dates affects the Final exams period for some of Zimbabwe's Schooling community. if they can't respect the education process of the country's future leaders what then are they doing, destroying a country that is trying to rise from the muck they put it in.. (by them I mean All the Politicians involved). There is no running away from this issue. if polls are to be held this year they will disturb the School calender.

On the plus side there is more time for voter education. the Referendum brought out clearly how seriously Zimbabweans need more voter education. the "ignorance" on the subject among most Zimbabweans is pitiful.

Also candidates would have more time to carry out their campaigns in their respective constituencies. And be know by the people they seek to serve.

As long as there is no set date for the polls Zimbabwe has no future to look forward to. Until then its driving blind.

IM sure I speak for many Zimbabweans when I say that may a date please be set  sooner rather than later.

  

EU LIFTS SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE... WHY?????

Sanctions
Who are they meant to hurt?
Who was hurt, Affected?
Will they be lifted?

I'm sure the answers to those questions came to your minds as soon as you read the first word at the top...
There is good news for Zimbabweans.
The EU has lifted sanctions on Zimbabwe although Ten people, including President Robert Mugabe, and two companies, including state-run diamond miner the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation, remain on the sanctions list, an EU source said.

What we should take from this is hope for a better future as we can expect that the tourism industry can regain some of its lost ground. That's my hope.  

The lift according to the EU is a reaction to the peaceful and successful referendum. I wonder then that had the vote been a no would the sanctions have been lifted?? This is a curious matter to me, this reward and punishment power that the west has over most of the third word countries as to how they can effect political decisions by giving or withdrawing economic aid or any other forms of assistance begs the question "who is running my country and who is running them?" well in the case of the current president that was clear. perhaps thats why he remains on the sanctions list. No sovereign nation should be forced to conform to western standards of governance. Each nation should freely determine it's own political road map.

Well all we can do now is hope that the lifting of the sanctions brings some good economic fortunes to the country. Perhaps the the EU and USA have plans on as to the out come of the general election set to have taken place by the end of the year. Could they have an assertion that  the winner of the general elections could be one who would conform to the West's Ideologies. I surely hope that's not the case, because this would not better the conditions of the greater population of Zimbabwe. I feel this way because the trend in most western countries is a capitalist system that has seen the greater population finding themselves in debt or unable to pay for all the expenses and luxuries they expect to live in.

Sanctions on Zimbabwe may be partially lifted but whats the take of the common citizen and what effect does it bear on the country as a whole. We can only hope for the best out of this situation. 

Violent General Elections Coming Up?

Final Lap: Contestants take your places

So its the final lap to the elections...
Violence is what everybody fears..
should we expect it???

PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM NOT ASKING PEOPLE TO PARTAKE IN VIOLENT ACTIONS BEFORE AFTER OR DURING THE GENERAL ELECTION !!!!!!!!!!!!

In all the past elections since the emergence of a significantly strong opposition party (MDC) there has been politically influenced violence. In this view most people seem to anticipate "bloody" polls. I do too.
Why you may ask... well the nation's uniformed forces is led by people that actively participated in the liberation struggle and feel this nation is theirs. So too are those in the once undoubted "Ruling Party". As such they are more likely to consider violent action as means for maintaining the offices they hold.

Zimbabwe is a young country in comparison to some of the well established examples of "democracy" in Europe or America that  gone through large numbers of presidents and or heads of state; where Zimbabwe has only gone through 1 in its 32 year history. This has greatly impacted the people of Zimbabwe such that if the out come of the General elections is not a favored one to some groups there will be a violent backlash in response to the result.

During the weekend there was a graduation ceremony for several hundred police cadets.....
fresh from training the young cops are quick to strike with their  batons. So too are those from the military. My fear is if their commanders are unclear as to that their agenda is to protect the people and not to strike fear and pain to them the election result will not be consider free or fair....

I URGE YOU TO CEASE AND DESIST FROM ANY VIOLENT ACT IN THE MONTHS TO FOLLOW
LETS ALL VOTE IN PEACE AND HARMONY

Accessing the referendum Vote

I first talked of what people were going to vote for, now lets see what we have learnt from the referendum.

Yes people wanted a new constitution and they are set on getting it
Yes again the people carried out the vote in a peaceful manner and I’m sure everybody is happy about that.

The pre-referendum period was largely peaceful but was punctuated by an upsurge in attacks on civil society organizations which witnessed raids and searches at the Zimbabwe Peace Project, ZIMRIGHTS, ZESN, NYDT and Radio Dialogue.

Such attacks on civil society impeded the ability of the CSOs to freely provide their services to the citizenry, and can stifle information to the communities especially as it relates to the referendum.

Voter Education- the ZEC embarked on a voter education outreach programme meant to inform prospective voters of the requirements and places where people were going to cast their votes.

The outreach meetings started on the 6th of March and were conducted until the 13th of March 2013 with ZEC deploying 2 voter educators per ward. Clearly the time allocated for voter education exercise was inadequate and indeed not far reaching.

Now we are looking towards the General elections set for June are we to expect violence?

This will be the topic of my next blog.....